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There are reasons to be optimistic that a housing recovery is just around the corner.
David Crowe, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), said in regards to housing production, “This past year will come in barely over 2009, which makes 2010 second to 2009 as the worst year since the 1930s and both years were about half the previously recorded low. The expansive building of 2004 to 2005 has been more than compensated for, and 45 states are now below their long-term demographically driven production levels. The NAHB estimates that cumulative single-family production is now 3 million homes under the long-term need.”
The NAHB estimates that “as many as 2 million households remain in roommate or parent situations waiting for more promising economic conditions to form their own households. Thirty-somethings cannot continue to live in mom’s basement.”
Crowe also points out that the overwhelming number of distressed (short-sale or foreclosure) properties that have sold recently have negatively impacted the current price index. The good news is, however, that he believes the “budding housing recovery will not be a barn burner, … but the underlying five-year dearth of construction while the population grew and matured is a compelling reason to believe that it must arrive”.
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